The debate over global climate change is certain to play a role in this year’s presidential election. But that debate is not what it used to be, and neither party seems fully attuned to the way it has been changing in the past few years.
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First, there is now an overwhelming consensus among scientists that global warming is real and that human activity is a major contributing factor. Even just a few years ago, there was still considerable room for doubt on both fronts, but the evidence has continued to mount and even several prominent skeptics have been convinced. This doesn’t mean that there is no longer a need for criticism of climate research; indeed, forceful criticism of climate science has done much to improve that science. And many important questions about climate change remain unanswered. But the scientific consensus is strong and growing stronger.
Second, the politics of the global warming debate have significantly shifted, too. Polling in this area is not definitive, but what polls there are indicate that the majority of Americans think global warming is real, and twice as many Americans believe it is due to human activity as believe it is a natural phenomenon. Al Gore’s 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth, his having been awarded the Nobel Prize, and the past two years of scaremongering from a sympathetic press have surely gone far to persuade people of the reality of climate change — although not, the polls suggest, of the need for immediate political action.
